Estimation question

Estimate the total number of videos on YouTube.

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What this question tests

Structured estimation: breaking a huge unknown number into defensible, stated assumptions.

How to approach it

  1. Anchor on YouTube's known scale, roughly 2.5 billion logged in monthly users, and estimate uploader share.
  2. Assume a small fraction, say 5 percent, of users have ever uploaded at least one video.
  3. Estimate average videos per uploader over the platform's 19 year life, say 5 videos per active uploader.
  4. Multiply: 2.5 billion times 5 percent times 5 videos gives roughly 625 million, then round for scale.
  5. Sanity check against known data points, such as reports of 500 hours uploaded per minute, to cross validate order of magnitude.
  6. State the final estimate as a range, for example 500 million to 1 billion videos, not a false precise number.

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