Estimation question

An airport closed down for a day due to inclement weather. How long does it take to get caught up?

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What this question tests

Operational estimation: can you reason through backlog accumulation and recovery capacity rather than guessing a flat recovery time.

How to approach it

  1. Estimate the backlog created, assume a mid sized airport normally handles 300 flights a day, so a full closure creates a backlog of roughly 300 delayed or cancelled flights.
  2. Estimate the airport's normal versus surge capacity, assume it can handle maybe 10 to 15 percent above normal daily volume by adding extra flights and tighter turnarounds.
  3. Calculate daily catch up capacity: 15 percent of 300 is roughly 45 extra flights absorbed per day beyond the normal daily load.
  4. Divide the backlog by daily catch up capacity: 300 divided by 45 gives roughly 7 days to fully clear the backlog, assuming no new disruptions.
  5. Adjust downward since airlines often also cancel some lower priority flights and rebook passengers onto other carriers, which speeds recovery, so a more realistic estimate is 3 to 5 days.
  6. State the final answer as a range and note that weather recurrence and connecting hub effects are the biggest sources of uncertainty.

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