Estimation question

Estimate how many trains operate in the NYC subway.

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What this question tests

Tests structured estimation for a specific, real transit system using ridership and train-capacity assumptions instead of a guessed number.

How to approach it

  1. State the approach: estimate via peak-hour ridership divided by train capacity and frequency, since this is more grounded than guessing train count directly.
  2. Assume the NYC subway carries roughly 4 million rides on an average weekday, with peak-hour ridership concentrated in a few hours, say 20% of daily riders in the morning peak hour.
  3. Assume an average train car holds about 150 people at capacity, with roughly 8-10 cars per train, giving roughly 1,300 riders per train.
  4. Divide peak-hour riders (roughly 800,000) by capacity per train (1,300) to estimate roughly 600 trains actively running to handle peak demand at once.
  5. Sanity-check against the known public figure that NYC's subway fleet has roughly 6,400 cars total, implying a plausible few hundred trains active simultaneously during peak service, consistent with the derived estimate.

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