Estimation question

Estimate the aggregate number of miles joggers run in Central Park NY City in a year.

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What this question tests

Estimation skill combining park usage patterns, park size, and reasonable running behavior assumptions.

How to approach it

  1. Pick a method: estimate daily joggers in Central Park, average miles per jogger, then scale to a year.
  2. Estimate daily joggers: Central Park sees heavy foot traffic, assume roughly 5,000 to 10,000 joggers on an average day across seasons.
  3. Assume an average distance per jogging session, roughly 3 miles per person per visit.
  4. Multiply daily joggers by average miles to get a daily mileage total.
  5. Adjust for seasonality, since winter and bad weather reduce joggers meaningfully, so apply a seasonal average rather than peak day numbers.
  6. Multiply the adjusted daily average by 365 to reach an annual estimate, stated as an order of magnitude.

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