Estimation question
Estimate the number of drones necessary to complete all deliveries for Amazon in NYC.
- Estimation
- Medium
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What this question tests
Estimation with real-world operational constraints: can you factor in payload, range and delivery-window limits, not just raw package volume.
How to approach it
- Estimate daily package volume for Amazon in NYC, e.g. a large metro area with a few million residents and high Amazon penetration (state as assumption).
- Filter to drone-eligible packages: small, light items within drone payload limits (assume under 5 lbs) and short-range delivery zones, a fraction of total volume.
- Estimate deliveries per drone per day, factoring flight time, battery/recharge cycles, and NYC-specific constraints like airspace restrictions and building density.
- Divide eligible daily package volume by deliveries-per-drone to get the fleet size needed.
- Sanity check: NYC's dense, high-rise environment likely makes drone delivery far less practical than suburban areas, which should lower the eligible volume assumption further.
- State what data would refine this: actual FAA airspace rules and real drone flight-time specs.
What a strong answer includes
- Explicitly narrows total package volume down to a drone-eligible subset, rather than dividing all packages by drone capacity.
- Flags NYC-specific real-world constraints (density, airspace, no easy landing spots) that most other cities wouldn't have, showing situational awareness.
- Builds the estimate in clear stages (eligible volume, deliveries per drone, fleet size) rather than jumping to a number.
- Gives a defensible range and states its biggest uncertainty (recharge/battery cycle time).
Common mistakes
- Applying drone capacity to all packages instead of narrowing to a realistic drone-eligible subset.
- Ignoring NYC-specific constraints like density and airspace regulation that a suburban estimate wouldn't need.
Likely follow-up questions
- What would make NYC a bad first city for drone delivery compared to a suburban market?
- How does battery/recharge time change your fleet-size estimate?
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Learn the skill behind it
Chapters of the AI PM course that teach what this question tests.
- Chapter 2: Data fluency: SQL, logs, and reading the truth yourself
- Chapter 9: Prove it paid off: outcomes, economics, and pricing
- Chapter 14: Get the job: the AI PM interview loop