Estimation question
Estimate the number of emails that the city of San Francisco receives.
- Estimation
- Easy
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What this question tests
Whether you can decompose an unfamiliar estimation problem into clean, stated assumptions.
How to approach it
- Clarify scope: emails received by people and organizations located in San Francisco, per day or per year.
- Estimate the population: roughly 800,000 residents plus commuters and businesses receiving mail there.
- Split into segments: personal emails per person per day, and business or transactional emails per worker per day, since volumes differ a lot.
- State assumptions: roughly 20 personal emails per person per day, and 100 plus emails per office worker per day including automated mail.
- Multiply each segment by its population and sum, then convert to an annual figure if the question calls for it.
- Sanity check the total against known scale, like global daily email volume in the hundreds of billions, to confirm the city's share is reasonable.
What a strong answer includes
- Splits personal versus business email volume, since office workers receive far more email than the average resident.
- States clear numeric assumptions at each step instead of asserting a final number.
- Accounts for commuters and businesses, not just registered residents, since a city's email volume includes both.
- Sanity checks the result against a rough sense of global email volume to catch an order-of-magnitude mistake.
Common mistakes
- Using one flat per-person email estimate that ignores the much higher volume from business accounts.
- Skipping a sanity check, leaving an estimate that could be off by 10x unnoticed.
Likely follow-up questions
- How would this estimate change if you included automated and marketing emails separately?
- Which assumption in your estimate are you least confident about?
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Learn the skill behind it
Chapters of the AI PM course that teach what this question tests.
- Chapter 2: Data fluency: SQL, logs, and reading the truth yourself
- Chapter 9: Prove it paid off: outcomes, economics, and pricing
- Chapter 14: Get the job: the AI PM interview loop