Estimation question
Estimate the number of passengers arriving in SF airport every day.
- Estimation
- Easy
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What this question tests
Estimation using known annual airport traffic figures and flight and passenger math.
How to approach it
- Estimate the airport's total annual passenger traffic, for example around 50 million passengers a year, both arrivals and departures.
- Assume roughly half of total traffic represents arrivals, since each trip includes one arrival and one departure somewhere.
- Divide the annual arrivals figure by 365 days to get an average daily arrivals number.
- Adjust for known seasonality, since summer travel is heavier than winter, and state the daily figure as a range.
- Sanity check against known daily flight volume, using an average plane size to cross check.
What a strong answer includes
- Anchors on a real, known reference point, the airport's roughly 50 million annual passengers, rather than estimating from scratch.
- Shows the math clearly, 50 million divided by two for arrivals only, divided by 365 days gives roughly 68,000 daily arriving passengers.
- Cross checks with a second method, daily flight count times average passengers per flight, to validate the estimate.
Common mistakes
- Not distinguishing arrivals from total passenger traffic, which includes departures.
- Giving a single number with no cross check method.
- Ignoring seasonality when the question could reasonably ask for a typical or peak day.
Likely follow-up questions
- How would your estimate change for a holiday travel day?
- How would you break this down by domestic versus international arrivals?
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Learn the skill behind it
Chapters of the AI PM course that teach what this question tests.
- Chapter 2: Data fluency: SQL, logs, and reading the truth yourself
- Chapter 9: Prove it paid off: outcomes, economics, and pricing
- Chapter 14: Get the job: the AI PM interview loop