Estimation question

Estimate the number of Uber rides.

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What this question tests

Structured estimation: breaking a large unknown into a defensible chain of assumptions.

How to approach it

  1. Clarify scope: estimate daily Uber rides globally, stating the assumption explicitly if the interviewer doesn't specify.
  2. Estimate the addressable population: adult smartphone users in Uber's operating cities, roughly 400 to 500 million, as an assumption.
  3. Estimate penetration: assume 15 to 20% of that population are active Uber users in a given month.
  4. Estimate ride frequency: assume an active user takes 2 to 4 rides per month on average.
  5. Multiply through to a monthly figure, then divide by 30 for a daily estimate, sanity-checking against any known public figures.
  6. State the final number as a range, not a false-precision point estimate.

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