Estimation question

How many elevators are needed in a mall?

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What this question tests

Estimation using traffic and capacity reasoning: can you build a defensible number from foot traffic, floor count, and elevator throughput.

How to approach it

  1. Estimate mall size, assume a large mall with 4 floors and roughly 20,000 visitors on a peak day.
  2. Estimate peak hour traffic, assume 15 percent of daily visitors arrive in the busiest hour, roughly 3,000 people.
  3. Estimate how many of those need an elevator versus escalators or stairs, assume 20 percent, mostly those with strollers, mobility needs, or carrying heavy shopping, roughly 600 people per peak hour.
  4. Estimate elevator throughput, assume each elevator holds 10 people and completes a round trip in 2 minutes, giving 5 trips per hour, roughly 50 people moved per hour per elevator.
  5. Divide demand by capacity: 600 divided by 50 gives roughly 12 elevators needed at peak, then round down slightly accounting for escalators absorbing some overflow, landing around 8 to 10 elevators.
  6. State the final estimate as a range and name peak hour demand as the most sensitive assumption.

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