Estimation question
How would you estimate the number of new users Amazon gets in a day?
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What this question tests
Estimation using known scale of an established platform and reasonable growth rate assumptions.
How to approach it
- Estimate the platform's total active customer base, commonly cited in the hundreds of millions to over a billion globally across all markets.
- Estimate overall annual growth rate in active customers, for example a modest single digit percentage given maturity in many markets.
- Convert annual net new customers into a daily figure by dividing by 365, noting this is net growth, not gross new sign ups.
- Adjust to reflect gross new sign ups specifically if that is what is being asked, factoring in that many sign ups come from existing household members creating additional accounts.
- State the final estimate as a range and clarify whether it represents net platform growth or gross new account creation.
What a strong answer includes
- Distinguishes clearly between net new active customers and gross new account sign ups, a key clarification most candidates skip.
- Shows the calculation, 1 billion active customers times 5 percent annual growth equals 50 million net new customers a year, divided by 365 gives roughly 137,000 net new customers a day.
- States the result as a range and explains gross sign ups would likely be several times higher due to churn and multiple accounts per household.
Common mistakes
- Not distinguishing between net growth and gross new sign ups, which are very different numbers.
- Giving a number with no stated base user count or growth rate assumption.
- Ignoring that growth rate likely varies significantly by region.
Likely follow-up questions
- How would you adjust this for a specific high growth market versus a mature market?
- How would you validate this estimate using public earnings report data?
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Learn the skill behind it
Chapters of the AI PM course that teach what this question tests.
- Chapter 2: Data fluency: SQL, logs, and reading the truth yourself
- Chapter 9: Prove it paid off: outcomes, economics, and pricing
- Chapter 14: Get the job: the AI PM interview loop