Estimation question

How would you estimate the total number of cars right now in Highway 101 between San Francisco and Mountain View?

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What this question tests

Structured estimation applied to a physical, real-world scenario with clear geographic bounds.

How to approach it

  1. Clarify scope: the stretch of Highway 101 between San Francisco and Mountain View, roughly 35 to 40 miles, at a given moment.
  2. Estimate average traffic density per lane per mile based on typical highway spacing, e.g. one car per 100 to 150 feet during moderate traffic.
  3. Estimate the number of lanes in each direction, assumed at 4 to 5 lanes each way for this stretch.
  4. Multiply density per lane-mile by total lane-miles (distance times lanes times both directions) to get a total car count.
  5. Adjust the estimate for time of day, since rush hour density is much higher than off-peak.
  6. State the final estimate as a range tied to a specific time-of-day assumption.

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