Estimation question

How would you go about finding out the number of red cars in China?

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What this question tests

Estimation methodology combined with data-gathering strategy, since the question asks how you would find out, not just for a number.

How to approach it

  1. Clarify the two interpretations: estimate the number directly, or describe a data collection methodology, and address both.
  2. For estimation, start with China's total vehicle count, roughly 300 million registered vehicles, a commonly cited order-of-magnitude figure.
  3. Assume the share of cars that are red, based on general color popularity data, roughly 5 to 8 percent of cars globally.
  4. Calculate: 300 million times 6 percent gives roughly 18 million red cars.
  5. For methodology, describe validating this via sampling traffic camera or dealership sales data across regions.
  6. State the final estimate as a range, roughly 15 to 20 million, noting regional variation in color popularity.

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