Estimation question

Estimate the number of attorneys in the US.

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What this question tests

Whether the candidate can build a bottoms-up estimate using population, profession density, and law school output assumptions.

How to approach it

  1. State scope: assume all licensed, practicing attorneys in the US.
  2. Estimate using a per-capita density assumption, for example roughly 3 to 4 attorneys per 1,000 residents, based on general knowledge that law is a fairly common profession.
  3. Multiply: 335 million times 3.5 per 1,000 gives roughly 1.2 million attorneys.
  4. Sanity check with a bottoms-up cross-check: roughly 40,000 to 45,000 new law graduates enter the field yearly, and assuming an average career length of 30 years implies a stock of roughly 1.2 to 1.4 million, which is consistent.
  5. Land on a final estimate of roughly 1.2 to 1.3 million, presented as a range.

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