Estimation question
Estimate the number of attorneys in the US.
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What this question tests
Whether the candidate can build a bottoms-up estimate using population, profession density, and law school output assumptions.
How to approach it
- State scope: assume all licensed, practicing attorneys in the US.
- Estimate using a per-capita density assumption, for example roughly 3 to 4 attorneys per 1,000 residents, based on general knowledge that law is a fairly common profession.
- Multiply: 335 million times 3.5 per 1,000 gives roughly 1.2 million attorneys.
- Sanity check with a bottoms-up cross-check: roughly 40,000 to 45,000 new law graduates enter the field yearly, and assuming an average career length of 30 years implies a stock of roughly 1.2 to 1.4 million, which is consistent.
- Land on a final estimate of roughly 1.2 to 1.3 million, presented as a range.
What a strong answer includes
- Cross-checks the top-down per-capita estimate against a bottoms-up flow calculation (annual graduates times career length), a strong estimation technique.
- States each assumption (density ratio, graduate rate, career length) explicitly before combining them.
- Lands on a range that is internally consistent across both estimation methods.
Common mistakes
- Relying on only one estimation method without a sanity-check cross-reference.
- Skipping the explanation of why the chosen per-capita density is reasonable.
Likely follow-up questions
- How would you adjust this if you excluded attorneys who no longer practice law?
- Which of your two methods do you trust more, and why?
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Learn the skill behind it
Chapters of the AI PM course that teach what this question tests.
- Chapter 2: Data fluency: SQL, logs, and reading the truth yourself
- Chapter 9: Prove it paid off: outcomes, economics, and pricing
- Chapter 14: Get the job: the AI PM interview loop