Estimation question
Estimate the number of tube lights used in a big city (10 Million Population).
- Ola
- Estimation
- Easy
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What this question tests
Tests structured estimation, breaking a city-scale physical quantity into per-building and per-room assumptions.
How to approach it
- State the funnel: population, households, buildings/units per household type, then tube lights per unit or room.
- Assume average household size of 4, giving roughly 2.5 million households for a 10 million population city.
- Assume an average home has 4 rooms with tube lights (living, bedrooms, kitchen), so roughly 10 million tube lights in homes alone.
- Add commercial and public spaces: offices, shops, and streetlights, assumed roughly equal in count to another 20-30% of the residential figure, adding about 2.5 to 3 million more.
- Total the estimate: roughly 12 to 13 million tube lights across the city, stated as an order-of-magnitude figure, not a precise count.
What a strong answer includes
- Shows the full breakdown (households, rooms per household, commercial add-on) rather than a single guessed number.
- Labels every assumption explicitly, e.g. 'assume household size of 4', so the interviewer can challenge any specific link.
- Separates residential from commercial/public tube light usage, since lumping them together would hide a major source of undercounting.
- States the final answer as an order of magnitude (12-13 million) rather than false precision, appropriate for a Fermi estimate.
Common mistakes
- Jumping to a single guessed number without a visible chain of assumptions.
- Ignoring commercial, office, and street lighting and counting only residential use.
Likely follow-up questions
- How would this estimate change in a city with more LED adoption replacing tube lights?
- How would you validate this estimate against real electricity or retail sales data?
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Learn the skill behind it
Chapters of the AI PM course that teach what this question tests.
- Chapter 2: Data fluency: SQL, logs, and reading the truth yourself
- Chapter 9: Prove it paid off: outcomes, economics, and pricing
- Chapter 14: Get the job: the AI PM interview loop