Estimation question
How many coffee shops are there in San Francisco?
- Capital One
- Salesforce
- Estimation
- Easy
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What this question tests
Whether you can build a quick, defensible density-based estimate for a familiar local business type.
How to approach it
- Confirm scope: independent coffee shops plus chain locations like Starbucks and Peet's within San Francisco city limits.
- Start from San Francisco's population, roughly 800,000 to 850,000 residents, plus daytime workers and tourists who also buy coffee.
- State a density assumption, such as roughly 1 coffee shop per 1,500 to 2,000 people, reflecting a coffee-dense city.
- Divide the population estimate by the assumed people-per-shop ratio to reach a total count.
- Sanity check against a known reference, like the fact that San Francisco is widely known for a high concentration of independent cafes.
- Present the result as a range, and flag the density assumption as the most sensitive input to the final number.
What a strong answer includes
- Uses a density-based method, population divided by people per shop, rather than a guessed round number.
- States the density assumption explicitly and explains why San Francisco likely skews denser than an average US city.
- Accounts for daytime workers and tourists, not just residents, since coffee shop demand isn't limited to locals.
- Sanity checks the result against San Francisco's known reputation as a coffee-dense city.
Common mistakes
- Giving a single number with no visible method or stated density assumption behind it.
- Using national average coffee shop density instead of adjusting for San Francisco's specific urban density.
Likely follow-up questions
- How would this estimate change if you excluded large chains and counted only independent shops?
- Which assumption would you most want real data on to sharpen this estimate?
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Learn the skill behind it
Chapters of the AI PM course that teach what this question tests.
- Chapter 2: Data fluency: SQL, logs, and reading the truth yourself
- Chapter 9: Prove it paid off: outcomes, economics, and pricing
- Chapter 14: Get the job: the AI PM interview loop