Estimation question

How would you prepare a one month projection of a newly opened Ikea store for the company CEO?

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What this question tests

Tests business forecasting using comparable-store benchmarks and clearly stated assumptions, tailored to a retail context.

Use comparable-store analogy, a similar-sized Ikea store in a similar market, adjusted for local factors like population density and income.
Break down the projection: estimate daily foot traffic from a catchment-population and visit-rate assumption, average conversion rate to purchase, and average basket size.
State assumptions explicitly, a catchment population of 2M within a 30-minute drive, a 1% visit rate, 30% conversion, and a $60 average basket.
Account for the new-store honeymoon effect, since the opening month often spikes above steady state, and flag it as an upward adjustment that may not be sustained.
Present the projection as a range with clearly labeled assumptions, noting what real comparable-store data would refine it.

Uses comparable-store benchmarking explicitly, appropriate for retail forecasting, rather than a pure top-down population guess.
Flags the opening-month spike effect, a real retail dynamic that changes the first month's numbers versus steady state.
Gives a range rather than a single precise-sounding figure.

Giving a single precise-sounding number without ranges or stated assumptions.
Ignoring the opening-month novelty spike effect specific to a newly opened store.

What comparable stores would you use as benchmarks, and how would you adjust for market differences?
How would you validate this projection against actual week-1 data once the store opens?