Estimation question

How many webcams were sold in the US during 2020?

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What this question tests

Tests structured estimation, market-sizing, using reasonable population and adoption assumptions that are explicitly marked.

How to approach it

  1. Frame webcam sales as buyers in 2020 times units per buyer, driven heavily by the pandemic's work-from-home and school shift.
  2. Assume US population around 330M, with a working and studying population needing a webcam of roughly 150M, given many laptops lack a decent built-in camera.
  3. Assume 15-20% of that 150M actually bought a webcam in 2020 due to the sudden demand spike, roughly 25M buyers, mostly buying one unit each.
  4. Adjust downward for the well-reported 2020 supply shortage, since demand outstripped supply for months.
  5. State a final estimate of roughly 15-25M webcams sold in the US in 2020, clearly labeled as assumption-based.

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