Estimation question

Suppose Nike wants to start a subscription shoe service. How would you size the market opportunity and validate it?

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What this question tests

Combining market sizing with go to market validation, estimating an opportunity and proposing how to test it before committing.

How to approach it

  1. Define the target user for a shoe subscription, likely parents of growing children or fitness enthusiasts wanting frequent new pairs.
  2. Estimate the addressable population, for example the number of US households with children in a fast growing shoe size range.
  3. Apply an adoption rate and average subscription price to estimate potential annual revenue.
  4. Propose a validation plan, such as a limited regional pilot or waitlist campaign to test real demand before a full launch.
  5. State what success in the pilot would look like, such as a target conversion rate from waitlist to paid subscription.

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