Estimation question
Estimate the sale of colored TVs in Flipkart during diwali.
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What this question tests
Whether you can build a bottom-up estimate accounting for a seasonal demand spike, not just average sales.
How to approach it
- Clarify scope: color TV unit sales specifically through Flipkart during the Diwali sale period, not the full festive season.
- Estimate the addressable online shopper base in India and the share likely to buy a TV during a major sale event.
- Estimate Flipkart's market share of online electronics sales in India versus competitors like Amazon, to scope Flipkart specifically.
- State a seasonal multiplier assumption, since Diwali sales see demand spike several times above a normal month for big-ticket electronics.
- Multiply the addressable base by purchase likelihood and Flipkart's share to reach a unit sales estimate for the period.
- Present the result as a range and flag the seasonal multiplier as the most sensitive, least certain assumption.
What a strong answer includes
- Explicitly separates normal-month demand from the Diwali spike using a stated multiplier, rather than estimating flat annual average demand.
- States Flipkart's market share assumption clearly instead of estimating total India-wide TV sales without narrowing to one platform.
- Uses a labeled bottom-up chain, addressable shoppers times purchase rate times platform share, rather than guessing a final number.
- Flags the seasonal multiplier as the most uncertain input, since it's the hardest number to know precisely.
Common mistakes
- Estimating using average monthly sales without accounting for the Diwali demand spike at all.
- Estimating total India TV sales without narrowing the answer down to Flipkart's specific share.
Likely follow-up questions
- How would you validate your seasonal multiplier assumption with any available data?
- How would this estimate change for a lower-priced TV segment versus premium TVs?
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Learn the skill behind it
Chapters of the AI PM course that teach what this question tests.
- Chapter 2: Data fluency: SQL, logs, and reading the truth yourself
- Chapter 9: Prove it paid off: outcomes, economics, and pricing
- Chapter 14: Get the job: the AI PM interview loop