Estimation question
How will you measure the impact of cancellation fees?
- Agoda
- Estimation
- Medium
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What this question tests
Estimation and metrics design: structuring how to isolate and measure the causal impact of a specific policy change.
How to approach it
- Clarify the policy: a new or changed cancellation fee on bookings, and confirm what 'impact' means, e.g. revenue or booking behavior.
- Identify the metrics to track: direct fee revenue collected, and secondary effects like changes in booking or cancellation rates.
- Propose a measurement method, such as an A/B test comparing markets with and without the fee, or a before-and-after comparison with controls.
- Address confounding factors, like seasonality or unrelated pricing changes that could distort a simple before-and-after comparison.
- Define the final read-out: net revenue impact after accounting for any drop in bookings caused by the new fee.
What a strong answer includes
- Proposes a controlled comparison (A/B test or matched control group) rather than a naive before-and-after look.
- Names a specific secondary effect to watch, like customers avoiding bookings altogether to dodge the fee.
- Addresses confounding factors explicitly, like seasonal demand shifts that could bias a simple comparison.
- Frames the final metric as net impact, combining fee revenue gained against any booking volume lost.
Common mistakes
- Measuring only direct fee revenue and ignoring behavioral side effects like reduced bookings.
- Using a naive before-and-after comparison with no control for confounding factors.
- Not defining what 'impact' means precisely before proposing a measurement method.
Likely follow-up questions
- How would you isolate the fee's effect from seasonal booking trends?
- What would you do if the fee increases revenue but also increases cancellation-avoidance behavior?
- How long would you wait before drawing conclusions from this data?
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Learn the skill behind it
Chapters of the AI PM course that teach what this question tests.
- Chapter 2: Data fluency: SQL, logs, and reading the truth yourself
- Chapter 9: Prove it paid off: outcomes, economics, and pricing
- Chapter 14: Get the job: the AI PM interview loop